|
|
Forecast decline of the price of Brent crude in 2012
Expected after a poll that the price of Brent crude to $ 105, down from a record high near $ 111 this year because of fears of the repercussions of the euro zone debt crisis on economic growth.The participants in the poll said they believe that oil prices will remain high due to concerns about supplies from Iraq and Kazakhstan, and the possible decline in Iranian exports because of the tightening Western sanctions. And price support derived from lower inventories and strong demand for diesel fuel.The survey, which included 32 monthly analyst and consultant that is expected to average Brent crude price of $ 105.20 a barrel in 2012, down from 110.90 dollars a barrel since the beginning of 2011 until now. The new average rate of less than $ 1.80 for the expected level in a poll November (November) of $ 107 a barrel. Brent and exceed $ 107 slightly on Wednesday.The poll showed that it is expected to average U.S. light crude for $ 97 a barrel in 2012, up from 96.50 dollars in a poll last month. The average price of U.S. crude 94.90 dollars a barrel since the beginning of 2011 until now. And kept 22 of 32 analysts surveyed expectations as of this month, but the seven analysts lowered their expectations.Said Julian Jessop, of «Capital Economics« We expect further weakness in prices in 2012 because of the combination of weak global demand and diminished supply of ballasts and low risk appetite and the continued recovery of the U.S. dollar ». And reduced the Organization of «OPEC» and the International Energy Agency forecasts demand growth in December (December), due to fears of a deteriorating economic outlook. The «OPEC» that the austerity measures in the euro zone and other advanced economies may weaken consumption in India and China.Frank said Chelberger, from «the BBC W.», which is expected to average $ 90 per Brent barrel «relatively high supply and lower-than-expected demand mean that prices will drop more». The total «Brent» highest in the current year at 127.02 dollars a barrel, as a result of supply disruptions from Yiba due to the disturbances, but without the highest levels ever recorded in August 2008 at 147.50 dollars.And prices expected to rise due to concerns about the political situation in Kazakhstan, Iraq and Iran. In Kazakhstan, the systems of hundreds of oil workers' protests in the Janaosen oil producers in the west of the country, after the deaths of at least 15 people in riots, which increases the pressure on President Nursultan Nazarbayev to ease the grip of an authoritarian system of government.The spotlight on Iraq as a result of fears of sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and the Kurds in the country after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Hours after the departure of the last U.S. forces, Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. Leach said of «JP C Energy»: «the situation in Iraq is particularly mysterious because the withdrawal of U.S. forces may lead to an escalation of sabotage attacks on oil infrastructure».Iran represents a risk factor, as the West consider to impose further sanctions on it, and is expected to issue its decision on the European Union imposed a ban on Iran in January (January). And the U.S. Congress to impose sanctions on Iran's central bank. Jessup said «tensions with Iran clearly involve a risk to the bullish side, but is unlikely to risk another rise of the West of prices, especially when they are already weak economic outlook». The survey found that the average premium for Brent crude over the U.S. will reach $ 8.20 a barrel next year, down sharply from an average 15.7 dollars since the beginning of 2011 until now.Rose futures for Brent and one of $ 107.73 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, supported by economic data revived hopes in the growth of demand in the United States, and pointed to the decline of tension in Europe. And increased morale in the financial markets after banks got 489 billion euros by offering a larger amount than expected.This bolstered the successful bid to the Central European optimism, after data showed a high rate of start-up of new housing and building permits in the United States in November to its highest level in a year and a half.Brent crude Brent «Brent» 22 cents to 106.93 dollars a barrel, by the time 11:52 GMT, having achieved the largest daily increase in percentage terms since mid-October (October) on Tuesday, to being settled up $ 3.09. The U.S. light crude rose 26 cents to 97.50 dollars a barrel.Said Michael Hewson, an analyst at «CMC Markets»: «low-cost financing from the European Central Bank to support the stock market», adding that the gains in turn boosted stock markets, risk-bearing instruments. He said «But the economic fundamentals do not support the rise of stock».The Italian statistics office said that the country's economy slipped into a recession may be prolonged, and analysts predicted a sharp decline in the last quarter of the year and more after that downturn with the decline in domestic demand.
Expected after a poll that the price of Brent crude to $ 105, down from a record high near $ 111 this year because of fears of the repercussions of the euro zone debt crisis on economic growth.The participants in the poll said they believe that oil prices will remain high due to concerns about supplies from Iraq and Kazakhstan, and the possible decline in Iranian exports because of the tightening Western sanctions. And price support derived from lower inventories and strong demand for diesel fuel.The survey, which included 32 monthly analyst and consultant that is expected to average Brent crude price of $ 105.20 a barrel in 2012, down from 110.90 dollars a barrel since the beginning of 2011 until now. The new average rate of less than $ 1.80 for the expected level in a poll November (November) of $ 107 a barrel. Brent and exceed $ 107 slightly on Wednesday.The poll showed that it is expected to average U.S. light crude for $ 97 a barrel in 2012, up from 96.50 dollars in a poll last month. The average price of U.S. crude 94.90 dollars a barrel since the beginning of 2011 until now. And kept 22 of 32 analysts surveyed expectations as of this month, but the seven analysts lowered their expectations.Said Julian Jessop, of «Capital Economics« We expect further weakness in prices in 2012 because of the combination of weak global demand and diminished supply of ballasts and low risk appetite and the continued recovery of the U.S. dollar ». And reduced the Organization of «OPEC» and the International Energy Agency forecasts demand growth in December (December), due to fears of a deteriorating economic outlook. The «OPEC» that the austerity measures in the euro zone and other advanced economies may weaken consumption in India and China.Frank said Chelberger, from «the BBC W.», which is expected to average $ 90 per Brent barrel «relatively high supply and lower-than-expected demand mean that prices will drop more». The total «Brent» highest in the current year at 127.02 dollars a barrel, as a result of supply disruptions from Yiba due to the disturbances, but without the highest levels ever recorded in August 2008 at 147.50 dollars.And prices expected to rise due to concerns about the political situation in Kazakhstan, Iraq and Iran. In Kazakhstan, the systems of hundreds of oil workers' protests in the Janaosen oil producers in the west of the country, after the deaths of at least 15 people in riots, which increases the pressure on President Nursultan Nazarbayev to ease the grip of an authoritarian system of government.The spotlight on Iraq as a result of fears of sectarian conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and the Kurds in the country after the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Hours after the departure of the last U.S. forces, Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. Leach said of «JP C Energy»: «the situation in Iraq is particularly mysterious because the withdrawal of U.S. forces may lead to an escalation of sabotage attacks on oil infrastructure».Iran represents a risk factor, as the West consider to impose further sanctions on it, and is expected to issue its decision on the European Union imposed a ban on Iran in January (January). And the U.S. Congress to impose sanctions on Iran's central bank. Jessup said «tensions with Iran clearly involve a risk to the bullish side, but is unlikely to risk another rise of the West of prices, especially when they are already weak economic outlook». The survey found that the average premium for Brent crude over the U.S. will reach $ 8.20 a barrel next year, down sharply from an average 15.7 dollars since the beginning of 2011 until now.Rose futures for Brent and one of $ 107.73 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, supported by economic data revived hopes in the growth of demand in the United States, and pointed to the decline of tension in Europe. And increased morale in the financial markets after banks got 489 billion euros by offering a larger amount than expected.This bolstered the successful bid to the Central European optimism, after data showed a high rate of start-up of new housing and building permits in the United States in November to its highest level in a year and a half.Brent crude Brent «Brent» 22 cents to 106.93 dollars a barrel, by the time 11:52 GMT, having achieved the largest daily increase in percentage terms since mid-October (October) on Tuesday, to being settled up $ 3.09. The U.S. light crude rose 26 cents to 97.50 dollars a barrel.Said Michael Hewson, an analyst at «CMC Markets»: «low-cost financing from the European Central Bank to support the stock market», adding that the gains in turn boosted stock markets, risk-bearing instruments. He said «But the economic fundamentals do not support the rise of stock».The Italian statistics office said that the country's economy slipped into a recession may be prolonged, and analysts predicted a sharp decline in the last quarter of the year and more after that downturn with the decline in domestic demand.
0 comments:
Post a Comment